Michael Smolens: Monica Montgomery Steppe has clear path to county supervisor seat

The diplomatic thing to say is the November runoff election for county supervisor is Monica Montgomery Steppe’s to lose, or something cautious like that.

The honest thing to say is she won’t.

There are always caveats, of course, but something huge and unforeseen would have to happen to change this history from taking its course.

Unless the Montgomery Steppe camp and fellow Democrats are totally asleep at the switch, the San Diego City Council member will defeat Republican Amy Reichert, probably by a lot.

Let us count the reasons why.

The numbers tell a big part of the story. In Supervisorial District 4, there are 194,058 registered Democratic voters, 79,125 registered Republicans and 95,193 voters who declare no party preference, the majority of whom likely lean Democratic.

Montgomery Steppe had received 41.4 percent of the vote, according to an update from the county Registrar of Voters at noon Thursday. Reichert gained 28.9 percent, Democrat Janessa Goldbeck 25 percent and Republican Paul McQuigg 4.7 percent.

If McQuigg’s voters go to Reichert, that’s 33.6 percent — less than two points shy of the percentage she received in losing to Supervisor Nathan Fletcher last November. These were two very different elections in terms of turnout and dynamics. Still, that suggests Reichert may have a hard — and low — ceiling in the district.

(Fletcher, a Democrat, resigned in the spring following a lawsuit accusing him of sexual misconduct, which led to the special election.)

Reichert needs to attract the vast majority of Goldbeck voters, but they are almost certain to go with Montgomery Steppe.

There was a great deal of competition between Goldbeck and Montgomery Steppe during the primary, but they share many of the same core values, which are far different from Reichert’s. Despite the bruises, most Democrats will fall in line.

Besides, most of the dirty work was done by outside groups, notably the San Diego Police Officers Association and the San Diego Deputy District Attorneys Association, which financed ugly negative ads against Montgomery Steppe.

Goldbeck’s failure to strongly disavow those mailers rankled Montgomery Steppe supporters, but Goldbeck’s congratulatory call to the victor Thursday may help patch things up.

With two Democrats in contention, the primary wasn’t very partisan. And because both Montgomery Steppe and Goldbeck wanted to face Reichert in November, the Republican wasn’t the subject of many attacks.

To that end, Reichert was positively promoted in mailers financed by a labor organization that supports Montgomery Steppe.

All that changes in the November election. Reichert will face a lot more scrutiny. Democrats likely will depict her as an extremist opposed to gun control and abortion rights, and at times she’ll probably be made to look like Donald Trump’s running mate. None of that goes over well in much of District 4, which includes San Diego neighborhoods near Balboa Park, along with the cities of Lemon Grove and La Mesa.

Reichert, a licensed private investigator, rose to prominence as the leader of ReOpen San Diego, which opposed various pandemic-related mandates. That attracted a lot of conservative supporters, though not uniformly. Polls showed San Diegans, particularly Democrats, backed many of those restrictions as public health precautions.

Geography also works heavily in Montgomery Steppe’s favor. Data specialist Vince Vasquez, executive director of the Policycraft Institute based in Carlsbad, created detailed maps showing where the candidates’ votes came from based on early returns. They are posted by Vasquez online on X (formerly Twitter).

Montgomery Steppe predictably received heavy support in her council district, which is within the county District 4. Vasquez noted those precincts have “greater numbers of renters, people of color, & multifamily housing.” Mongtomery Steppe also did well in some other central San Diego precincts.

Goldbeck’s support was concentrated “around the Uptown neighborhoods wreathing Balboa Park,” including some older areas with greater percentages of homeowners, and San Diego State University.

Those are politically progressive neighborhoods. Hillcrest is the heart of San Diego’s LGBTQ+ community and Goldbeck, a retired Marine and veterans advocate, is active in — and popular with — various LGBQ+ organizations.

It’s hard to imagine those areas gravitating to Reichert. Vasquez noted that Reichert “performed best in unincorporated East County precincts, in north of the (Interstate) 8 suburban neighborhoods with higher levels of home ownership, and precincts with higher numbers of registered Republican voters.”

Reichert sought to appeal to homeowners by criticizing the city of San Diego’s proposal to substantially increase housing density in single-family-home neighborhoods under Senate Bill 10, which was shelved. Given the overall dynamic of the emerging campaign, that’s unlikely to sway a lot of Democratic voters.

Montgomery Steppe and Democrats have a lot going in their favor heading toward November, but they may be wary about how much, or whether, to ease up on the throttle. Much is at stake.

Fletcher’s exit left the county Board of Supervisors with a partisan split — two Democrats and two Republicans. District 4 is by any measure Democratic territory, and labor leaders and party activists, not to mention their candidate, aren’t going want to blow what should be a sure thing.

A low-turnout special election would seemingly give Republicans a better chance in such a district. Turnout will be low again in the runoff, but more voters are likely to cast ballots in November than in August. That means proportionately more Democratic voters.

Republican powers may hold their fire, at least somewhat, to make a bid to gain the majority next year in coastal District 3, where Democrat Terra Lawson-Remer is up for re-election. Former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, a moderate Republican, has entered the race.

Democrats have a voter registration advantage in Lawson-Remer’s district, but it’s not as big as in District 4. So, the GOP has a more favorable district and a candidate better suited, with the March primary just five months after the District 4 runoff.

Speaking of holding their fire, it would be a surprise if the Police Officers Association and deputy district attorneys continued their onslaught against Montgomery Steppe in November.

They had a better chance to knock her out in the primary, and didn’t.

Further, many people maintained some of the law enforcement-backed mailers took a racist tone against Montgomery Steppe, a Black woman. That suggests there could have been a voter backlash from the flyers, but further analysis is needed to determine if that was actually the case.

Regardless, past donors to the two organizations might be leery of sinking more money into what could be a lost cause, if not the disgraceful nature of their strategy.